Now, lets talk the NFL championship game...
I'm not a big football fan (hockey is the only sport, everything else is just a game), but when it comes to statistical analysis, football and baseball are wonderful in the way they break everything up, they are both truly numbers games, and this games numbers were.......weird.
So, football betting is done in two ways.... the traditional "Seattle will win with a spread of 14 points" (common for most sport betting), and by "hits".
Hits are the last digit of the score at , which, since scoring in football is more difficult than scoring in Carcasonne, is essentially guessing how many and what type of scoring a team will do in a quarter.
| Touchdown | Hit |
| 1 | 7 |
| 2 |
4
3
1
4
8
5
5
6
2
7
9
It gets a lot more complicated when you add in 2 point conversions, field goals, and safeties, I actually find it a lot more enjoyable and challenging.
For some perspective, here are the historical odds a number will be hit after last night (thank you to www.printyourbrackets.com):
The number 0 appeared 105 times - 26.78%
The number 7 appeared 78 times - 19.89%
The number 3 appeared 60 times - 15.31%
The number 4 appeared 39 times -9.95%
The number 6 appeared 33 times - 8.41%
The number 1 appeared 23 times - 5.86%
The number 9 appeared 17 times - 4.34%
The number 8 appeared 16 times - 4.08%
The number 5 appeared 10 times - 2.55%
The number 2 appeared 11 times - 2.81%
The numbers that were needed to win included 3 8s, one 2, 6, and 3, and two 0.
Long story short, if your friends had money on the game, they probably lost it... or are a now rich time traveler.
Throughout the game, I kept my Facebook friends happy with fun tidbits each quarter (maybe I should start a twitter account for this?):
*********************************************************************************
S*p*rb*wl Stats - 1st Quarter - There is only a 2.08% historical chance that there will be a saftey OR an 8-0 score after 1 quarter.
S*p*rb*wl Stats - Second Quarter - 22.91% chance that a team is shut out after 1 half.
Double Bonus: 81.25% of super bowls include an Eastern Timezone team.
And for the triple bonus: If you were going of historical scores for your hits, there is a .06% chance you got Seattle right.
S*p*rb*wl Stats - 3rd Quarter - If you choose a Denver play at random, there is a 10% chance it results in a turnover (including the safety), there is a 2% it is the touchdown.
S*p*rb*wl Stats - 4th Quarter - Seattle tied for youngest average winning team and was 10 points from the largest point +/-.
Bonus: There was a 0% chance of the Ducks winning the game.
Only a few more months 'til the Stanley cup!
So yes, Resistance will be on its way, and it will be fantastic.
Until then, play smart!