The Australian Gambit - RISK

There are a few games set aside that are timeless classics that everyone knows.  RISK is by far the most popular war game in the world, and I know I have poured more of my time and energy into games of that than anything else.  As old and great as the game is, though, it isn't without its problems...

RISK is very highly based on luck, is generally long (especially if you're knocked out early on), and has been known to have unbalanced points, most well known is Australia.

The Australian continent has 1 entrance, 4 territories, and provides 2 extra units per turn.  It is a common strategy to bottle up in Australia, earn 5 units per turn, and just wait until you can conqure the world in one turn.

So how effective is it?

For this discussion, we will be using the TRADITIONAL RULES OF RISK.  Yes they exist, yes they are written in the rule books.  The game is the result of so many different house rules that I won't bother to cover how well the strategy works in these settings.

Dice in RISK
You know the basics, the attacker rolls a max of 3, the defender, a max of 2.  Here is a table of how individual battles work:

Defender		Attacker
		one die	two dice	three dice
one die	Defender loses one	41.67%	57.87%	65.97%
	Attacker loses one	58.33%	42.13%	34.03%
two dice	Defender loses one	25.46%	N/A	N/A
	Attacker loses one	74.54%	N/A	N/A
	Defender loses two	N/A	22.76%	37.17%
	Attacker loses two	N/A	44.83%	29.26%
	Each loses one	N/A	32.41%	33.58%

I just wanted this to be public knowledge before we continued.  The Wikipedia article on RISK has this and several more charts for the game.

Hypothesis: Australia is the best starting point for RISK and you will almost always win if you can take and hold Australia for a long period of time.


Now, there is nothing wrong with the Math, it works, if you can take and hold Australia and hold out long enough, you will almost always win (if you attack at the right time, also).  However, I wouldn't make that your go to strategy, since....

Everyone else is doing it
The reason the Australian Gambit is so effective is that Australia is out of the way, and inexperienced players will be too busy battling on other continents to pay mind to your small choke point in the corner.  However, sense everyone knows how effective that is, its very unlikely you will be able to take and hold it unopposed.  Anecdotally, I've seen players who rush for Australia be ganged up on and eliminated first.

While you can still easily hold Australia, you are going to have to fight for control of it.

Taking Australia
Assuming a random setup where you have control over 1 of the 4 (5 if you include Siam) territories in Australia, players going for the Australian gambit will need about 16 armies (and probably more), depending on how your opponents react to you stacking all of your units in 1 territory.

Defeating the Gambit
As stated above, the reason taking Australia works is because most people don't see it as a threat.  If your opponent is going for Australia early on, you can apply several countermeasures early on.

1. Call them out - A little bit of psychological warfare always makes RISK more fun, and it will make them start second guessing their moves, which is an advantage to you
2. Get aggressive - Chances are they left a lot of open territories elseware, knocking these out really forces a player into shutdown.
3. Don't let them accumulate soldiers - Most people view RISK battles as an all or nothing, you go until you can't attack any more.  Set this thought process aside.  Chances are they will be building up their forces in Siam, if you can, leave some troops in India to take a couple potshots at this stack to keep it under control.
4. Get cards and use them - A player going full offensive in Australia will not be able to collect cards, you can really abuse this.  Also, keep an eye on when they are getting ready to trade in (5 cards), as this is usually the sign that they are going to go on the offensive.

Applying the Gambit

So just going for Australia is not an option against experienced players, you will constantly be harassed and won't be able to build up a large force.  You can learn to apply this tactic in other ways.

Beating RISK counts on using 2 of the 3 Ss.

Stay Silent - Keep out of the way of the big fights, don't make yourself a target
Stay Small - Don't Spread Yourself Thin
Stay Intrusive - As oppose to staying silent, focus on taking a territory every turn for a card.

Using Australia keeps you out of the way (Silent), and consolidated (Small).  Other options include playing nomadically, you consolidate in an area of about 4 or 5 territories, and each turn you take 1 territory and lose 1 territory, slowly accumulating cards.  There have been several games I've played where everyone is so hellbent on taking Australia I was able to set up shop in South America (or Sometimes Africa), and play a similar strategy.

Side Note: If you are defending 2 territories, the best statistic advantage is to place 2 armies in 1 territory and all of your armies in the other territory, this way, you have the highest probability of doing damage in both territories, while maintain a force to counter attack.

Conclusion: While Australia is no longer a guaranteed success, the same tactics that allow for a successful Australia run can be applied elsewhere.

Well that took longer than expected.  Maybe in the future I'll look at Objective based RISK, but next week, I plan to tackle the modern classic, Resistance.

Until then, play smart!